Market Update- October 2019
Halloween has never been a big thing for me, if I’m being honest. When I was younger, it was obviously just a gimmick for Gavin, Meredith, Bailey and me to walk around The Villages in Clarksville and get enough candy for an Army squadron. I’m sure I was more actively in to it at the time, but it eventually faded off; especially once Bailey was old enough to not be in to it anymore. I’ve also never been a big scary movie guy. I don’t like stuff jumping out at me to scare me, little demon possessed kids that want to kill you, or a back-from-the-dead guy in a mask trying to go around stabbing college girls. No thanks. I have, however, (and thanks to Hillary, mostly) gotten really in to Stephen King books the last few years. Books are a bit more psychological and deep-thought horror than movies, and I can get behind that more than just some creepy music and lighting before a doll jumps out of a closet. Stephen King is the GOAT, and if you’re looking to get more in to reading, he does a lot more in his books than just make you want to turn all of the lights on in your house at night (although Salem’s Lot will definitely make you do this). Anyway, happy Halloween and on to what the Nashville market is stirring up this month!
Nationally, rates have stayed pretty flat this month for conventional products. This is a good thing, showing continued stability in the market and trust for the next month that things will stay on par. The reason that mortgage rates reflect what the market is anticipating as well as what has previously happened is because when you lock in a rate with a lender, you are doing so for the future (15-day lock, 30-day lock, etc.) so they are trying to plan and budget ahead for what the market is doing. If there are rumblings of a crisis or downturn in the next month, they’re not going to give you 3.75% knowing that rates will be far worse than that come closing time. There is a bit of salesmanship in there to get people to bite and lock at a good price, but they’re more focused on their own budgets and how they’re going to make money on the sale of your loan. All of that to say, the market and rates are in a very stable position for a time of year that is known for a slow period of home sales and refinances.
Just like mortgage rates and the Patriots being the best football team of all time, residential housing sales also stayed consistent over the course of the last couple of months. Inventory was almost exactly the same at the end of September as it was at the end of August. The median sales price was up a few thousand on single family housing and condo sales. I am curious to see what the numbers reflect for the month of October when they come out in the next couple of weeks. At the end of September, pending sales were down almost 10%, which is a pretty significant number when considering Davidson county and how hot the market has been to start off the fall. That is probably reflective of a couple of things: more patient buyers (buyers that started searching in the summer and are still looking for the right fit), and less sellers (people that are waiting until Spring when the usual bump in price is pretty customary). That’s usually just how the market goes this time of year. Or, the housing bubble that every fun-sucker has been trying to force upon Nashville by being the curmudgeon that says it’s all going up in flames has finally hit and we’re all going to lose 75% of our home values at the drop of the hat is upon us. Hopefully you’re able to be reasonable enough to realize which one I take more seriously as someone that keeps the pulse of what’s going on daily.
Like my article said a couple of weeks ago, if you’re planning on selling in the first half of 2020, let’s get together and go over a game plan for your ideas. Maybe now is the time to put some money in to upgrading your kitchen or bathrooms (because those will actually bring you monetary return on a sale) or do some painting to freshen up. If you have a lease ending before the Summer but don’t really know how to prepare to buy, I would love to help you with some ideas for either saving some money or making sure that your credit is ready to handle a mortgage. It’s never too early to prepare; just ask the Titans- they’ve been preparing to actually be a good football team for twenty years now.